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Lib-Dems beating Labour into third place


A story over at politics.co.uk tells how deep Labour’s woes, and Gordon Brown’s in particular, actually are.

An Ipsos Mori poll has put Labour in third place for the first time since February 1982.

The poll, which was conducted last week during the Liberal Democrat conference, suggests that both the Tories and Labour have lost points to the party.

According to the poll results, which are based on those who say they are “certain” to vote at the next election, the Tories are on 36 per cent, the Lib Dems are on 25 per cent and Labour is on 24 per cent.

The same poll last month showed the Tories on 43 per cent, Labour on 26 per cent and the Lib Dems on just 17 per cent.

However, parties traditionally receive a boost in the polls during their party conference and it is believed that Labour will get a similar boost after their own conference this week.

However, there was less good news for the Liberal Democrats when voters were asked who would make the most capable prime minister, 41 per cent chose David Cameron, 24 per cent chose Gordon Brown and only 16 per cent chose Nick Clegg.

 Not sure that you can read in too much to this as Lib Dem conference was last week so they could expect a bounce but this poll in the middle of the Labour conference is a peach. It certainly won’t help Gordon on the Broonites’ mood!

Categories: Politics
  1. boggartblog
    30/09/2009 at 21:11

    Clegg is not well known enough to register as a potential Prime Minister yet. As I commented on my satirical blog last week in response to someone telling mev 60% of voters don’t know who Claggie is,
    “With 40% thinking Gordon Brown is that crumply loking Scot who plats Rebus what chance of being recognised does a Lib Dem leader have?”

    Sailing Into The West

  2. 01/10/2009 at 00:09

    Thanks to “boggartblog” for popping across here! Most Welcome! As he says in his blog (linked to above)

    The LDs and the Liberal Party before them have always had a problem at the death of a Labour government. While disillusioned Conservatives will vote for the centre party rather than crossing the political spectrum, Labour voters wanting to express displeasure at a failed Labour administration do not seem able to bring themselves to vote for the third party in large numbers. They go right across to the Conservative candidates. This is strange because ideologically Labour has much more in common with the Liberal Democrats than with the Conservatives, the Lib Dems would do far more to protect vital public services and are as committed to sacred cows such as equal rights, environmental issues and support for third world nation as any Labour leadership.

    This is not entirely accurate. It is important to know where the Lib Dems came from. The Liberal Democrats where formed from a coalition of the old Liberal Party and the Social Democratic Party, itself a break away of the right of the Labour Party lead by the “Gang of Three” They used to attempt to hold a political position equidistant from the two main parties; Labour and Conservative; however in recent years they have been ideologically to the left of New Labor. Indeed, a close friend of mine who has voted Labour all his life and could be described as “Core” has defected to the Lib Dems. You are also missing the “Tactical Voting” paradigm which means that voters will go for whichever party is best placed to oust an unpopular incumbent party. It is therefor a tad more complex.

    Basically many of the white working class will gravitate towards the BNP (British National Party) which, although portrayed as a “Far Right” party, has, upon analysis, quite socialist economic views albeit with a highly objectionable and authoritarian bent to their views on Race. The right of center middle classes who were wooed by Tony Blair will “return to the fold” with the rather Blairite “Dave” at he helm of a revitalised Conservatives; the Left of Center will end up with the Greens and Labour will be left with a rump- and a not particularly juicy one at that.

  3. Dontmindme
    01/10/2009 at 09:44

    It’s one Mori poll. Therefore ignore it. Their methodlogy generates much more erratic results than others, and in my view is not to be trusted unless there is other evidence for it from other pollsters.

    Labour will not come third. I am willing to put a pint on it.

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